For example, now there are two buttons, press the red button, you can take away $1 million; press the blue button, there is a half chance, you can take $100 million, but there is a half chance, you take everything not. Which one would you choose?
Press the red button? Just take away $1 million and be safe, or take a bet and press the blue button. If you get $100 million, won't your small goal Buy email list in life be achieved? But what if you don't get anything? Might as well press red, although it is a lot less than 100 million, but at worst it is 1 million US dollars.
This is the " determination effect " I talked about before , "two birds in the forest, it is better to have one bird in hand", most people are reluctant to take risks for seemingly larger returns, they prefer smaller but certain returns . The "determination effect" is their "algorithm of life".
However, this multiple-choice question has only one correct answer. If you have studied "decision tree", you will know that the blue button has a larger "expected value" (expected value of 50 million) and is the most rational choice. A "decision tree" is your "algorithm of life".
However, even if the blue button is the most correct and rational choice, there is still a half chance that I will not get anything. What should I do? Is there a way I can definitely get a bigger payout than a million, increasing my odds of "winning"? Of course there is.
As I mentioned in the "Deterministic Effect", you can find an investor and sell the project to him at a price lower than the "expected value" of 50 million, such as 20 million. Wan, and he, obtained 50 million expected benefits – 20 million costs = 30 million expected profits. This is another "life algorithm" based on "probabilistic thinking".
Different "algorithms of life" bring about different choices and lead to completely different lives. And "probabilistic thinking" is the most basic "algorithm of life" for many successful people . Today we will talk about what is "probabilistic thinking".
Not long ago, at the 20th anniversary party of Microsoft GTEC, I interviewed Feng Yiming, the founder of Atomic Ventures. He has successfully invested in many unicorn giants such as Tuhu.com. In the interview, he put forward an impressive point of view, "Everyone must have a clear understanding that one of the very important factors for the success of entrepreneurship is luck ". This sounds very politically incorrect because most people would prefer to hear that starting a business is about hard work and hard work.
What is luck? Luck is probability, just with a touch of emotion. The probability of being favorable to us is called luck; the probability of being unfavorable to us is called bad luck. The so-called entrepreneurship depends on luck, and the emotional color is removed, that is: